StemGNN - Nixtla

The Spectral Temporal Graph Neural Network (StemGNN) is a Graph-based multivariate time-series forecasting model. StemGNN jointly learns temporal dependencies and inter-series correlations in the spectral domain, by combining Graph Fourier Transform (GFT) and Discrete Fourier Transform (DFT). This method proved state-of-the-art performance on geo-temporal datasets such as Solar, METR-LA, and PEMS-BAY, and References

Defu Cao, Yujing Wang, Juanyong Duan, Ce Zhang, Xia Zhu, Congrui Huang, Yunhai Tong, Bixiong Xu, Jing Bai, Jie Tong, Qi Zhang (2020). “Spectral Temporal Graph Neural Network for Multivariate Time-series Forecasting”.

Figure 1. StemGNN.

1. StemGNN

`StemGNN`

StemGNN(
    h,
    input_size,
    n_series,
    futr_exog_list=None,
    hist_exog_list=None,
    stat_exog_list=None,
    exclude_insample_y=False,
    n_stacks=2,
    multi_layer=5,
    dropout_rate=0.5,
    leaky_rate=0.2,
    loss=MAE(),
    valid_loss=None,
    max_steps=1000,
    learning_rate=0.001,
    num_lr_decays=3,
    early_stop_patience_steps=-1,
    val_check_steps=100,
    batch_size=32,
    valid_batch_size=None,
    windows_batch_size=32,
    inference_windows_batch_size=32,
    start_padding_enabled=False,
    training_data_availability_threshold=0.0,
    step_size=1,
    scaler_type="robust",
    random_seed=1,
    drop_last_loader=False,
    alias=None,
    optimizer=None,
    optimizer_kwargs=None,
    lr_scheduler=None,
    lr_scheduler_kwargs=None,
    dataloader_kwargs=None,
    **trainer_kwargs
)

Bases: BaseModel StemGNN The Spectral Temporal Graph Neural Network (StemGNN) is a Graph-based multivariate time-series forecasting model. StemGNN jointly learns temporal dependencies and inter-series correlations in the spectral domain, by combining Graph Fourier Transform (GFT) and Discrete Fourier Transform (DFT). Parameters:

Name	Type	Description	Default
`h`	`int`	Forecast horizon.	required
`input_size`	`int`	autorregresive inputs size, y=[1,2,3,4] input_size=2 -> y_[t-2:t]=[1,2].	required
`n_series`	`int`	number of time-series.	required
`futr_exog_list`	`str list`	future exogenous columns.	`None`
`hist_exog_list`	`str list`	historic exogenous columns.	`None`
`stat_exog_list`	`str list`	static exogenous columns.	`None`
`n_stacks`	`int`	number of stacks in the model.	`2`
`multi_layer`	`int`	multiplier for FC hidden size on StemGNN blocks.	`5`
`dropout_rate`	`float`	dropout rate.	`0.5`
`leaky_rate`	`float`	alpha for LeakyReLU layer on Latent Correlation layer.	`0.2`
`loss`	`PyTorch module`	instantiated train loss class from losses collection.	`MAE()`
`valid_loss`	`PyTorch module`	instantiated valid loss class from losses collection.	`None`
`max_steps`	`int`	maximum number of training steps.	`1000`
`learning_rate`	`float`	Learning rate between (0, 1).	`0.001`
`num_lr_decays`	`int`	Number of learning rate decays, evenly distributed across max_steps.	`3`
`early_stop_patience_steps`	`int`	Number of validation iterations before early stopping.	`-1`
`val_check_steps`	`int`	Number of training steps between every validation loss check.	`100`
`batch_size`	`int`	number of windows in each batch.	`32`
`valid_batch_size`	`int`	number of different series in each validation and test batch, if None uses batch_size.	`None`
`windows_batch_size`	`int`	number of windows to sample in each training batch, default uses all.	`32`
`inference_windows_batch_size`	`int`	number of windows to sample in each inference batch, -1 uses all.	`32`
`start_padding_enabled`	`bool`	if True, the model will pad the time series with zeros at the beginning, by input size.	`False`
`training_data_availability_threshold`	`Union[float, List[float]]`	minimum fraction of valid data points required for training windows. Single float applies to both insample and outsample; list of two floats specifies [insample_fraction, outsample_fraction]. Default 0.0 allows windows with only 1 valid data point (current behavior).	`0.0`
`step_size`	`int`	step size between each window of temporal data.	`1`
`scaler_type`	`str`	type of scaler for temporal inputs normalization see temporal scalers.	`‘robust’`
`random_seed`	`int`	random_seed for pytorch initializer and numpy generators.	`1`
`drop_last_loader`	`bool`	if True `TimeSeriesDataLoader` drops last non-full batch.	`False`
`alias`	`str`	optional, Custom name of the model.	`None`
`lr_scheduler_kwargs`	`dict`	optional, list of parameters used by the user specified `lr_scheduler`.	`None`
`dataloader_kwargs`	`dict`	optional, list of parameters passed into the PyTorch Lightning dataloader by the `TimeSeriesDataLoader`.	`None`
`**trainer_kwargs`	`int`	keyword trainer arguments inherited from PyTorch Lighning’s trainer.

`StemGNN.fit`

fit(
    dataset, val_size=0, test_size=0, random_seed=None, distributed_config=None
)

Fit. The fit method, optimizes the neural network’s weights using the initialization parameters (learning_rate, windows_batch_size, …) and the loss function as defined during the initialization. Within fit we use a PyTorch Lightning Trainer that inherits the initialization’s self.trainer_kwargs, to customize its inputs, see PL’s trainer arguments. The method is designed to be compatible with SKLearn-like classes and in particular to be compatible with the StatsForecast library. By default the model is not saving training checkpoints to protect disk memory, to get them change enable_checkpointing=True in __init__. Parameters:

Name	Type	Description	Default
`dataset`	`TimeSeriesDataset`	NeuralForecast’s `TimeSeriesDataset`, see documentation.	required
`val_size`	`int`	Validation size for temporal cross-validation.	`0`
`random_seed`	`int`	Random seed for pytorch initializer and numpy generators, overwrites model.init’s.	`None`
`test_size`	`int`	Test size for temporal cross-validation.	`0`

Returns:

Type	Description
None

`StemGNN.predict`

predict(
    dataset,
    test_size=None,
    step_size=1,
    random_seed=None,
    quantiles=None,
    h=None,
    explainer_config=None,
    **data_module_kwargs
)

Predict. Neural network prediction with PL’s Trainer execution of predict_step. Parameters:

Name	Type	Description	Default
`dataset`	`TimeSeriesDataset`	NeuralForecast’s `TimeSeriesDataset`, see documentation.	required
`test_size`	`int`	Test size for temporal cross-validation.	`None`
`step_size`	`int`	Step size between each window.	`1`
`random_seed`	`int`	Random seed for pytorch initializer and numpy generators, overwrites model.init’s.	`None`
`quantiles`	`list`	Target quantiles to predict.	`None`
`h`	`int`	Prediction horizon, if None, uses the model’s fitted horizon. Defaults to None.	`None`
`explainer_config`	`dict`	configuration for explanations.	`None`
`**data_module_kwargs`	`dict`	PL’s TimeSeriesDataModule args, see documentation.

Returns:

Type	Description
None

Usage Examples

Train model and forecast future values with predict method.

import pandas as pd
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt

from neuralforecast import NeuralForecast
from neuralforecast.models import StemGNN
from neuralforecast.utils import AirPassengersPanel, AirPassengersStatic
from neuralforecast.losses.pytorch import MAE

Y_train_df = AirPassengersPanel[AirPassengersPanel.ds<AirPassengersPanel['ds'].values[-12]].reset_index(drop=True) # 132 train
Y_test_df = AirPassengersPanel[AirPassengersPanel.ds>=AirPassengersPanel['ds'].values[-12]].reset_index(drop=True) # 12 test

model = StemGNN(h=12,
                input_size=24,
                n_series=2,
                scaler_type='standard',
                max_steps=500,
                early_stop_patience_steps=-1,
                val_check_steps=10,
                learning_rate=1e-3,
                loss=MAE(),
                valid_loss=MAE(),
                batch_size=32
                )

fcst = NeuralForecast(models=[model], freq='ME')
fcst.fit(df=Y_train_df, static_df=AirPassengersStatic, val_size=12)
forecasts = fcst.predict(futr_df=Y_test_df)

# Plot predictions
fig, ax = plt.subplots(1, 1, figsize = (20, 7))
Y_hat_df = forecasts.reset_index(drop=False).drop(columns=['unique_id','ds'])
plot_df = pd.concat([Y_test_df, Y_hat_df], axis=1)
plot_df = pd.concat([Y_train_df, plot_df])

plot_df = plot_df[plot_df.unique_id=='Airline1'].drop('unique_id', axis=1)
plt.plot(plot_df['ds'], plot_df['y'], c='black', label='True')
plt.plot(plot_df['ds'], plot_df['StemGNN'], c='blue', label='Forecast')
ax.set_title('AirPassengers Forecast', fontsize=22)
ax.set_ylabel('Monthly Passengers', fontsize=20)
ax.set_xlabel('Year', fontsize=20)
ax.legend(prop={'size': 15})
ax.grid()

Using cross_validation to forecast multiple historic values.

fcst = NeuralForecast(models=[model], freq='M')
forecasts = fcst.cross_validation(df=AirPassengersPanel, static_df=AirPassengersStatic, n_windows=2, step_size=12)

# Plot predictions
fig, ax = plt.subplots(1, 1, figsize = (20, 7))
Y_hat_df = forecasts.loc['Airline1']
Y_df = AirPassengersPanel[AirPassengersPanel['unique_id']=='Airline1']

plt.plot(Y_df['ds'], Y_df['y'], c='black', label='True')
plt.plot(Y_hat_df['ds'], Y_hat_df['StemGNN'], c='blue', label='Forecast')
ax.set_title('AirPassengers Forecast', fontsize=22)
ax.set_ylabel('Monthly Passengers', fontsize=20)
ax.set_xlabel('Year', fontsize=20)
ax.legend(prop={'size': 15})
ax.grid()

2. Auxiliary functions

`GLU`

GLU(input_channel, output_channel)

Bases: Module GLU

`StockBlockLayer`

StockBlockLayer(time_step, unit, multi_layer, stack_cnt=0)

Bases: Module StockBlockLayer

​1. StemGNN

​StemGNN

​StemGNN.fit

​StemGNN.predict

​Usage Examples

​2. Auxiliary functions

​GLU

​StockBlockLayer